Yes, that's what it looks like. When you randomize patients to PDE5i versus no PDE5i in clinical trials, you eliminate all sources of bias and the mortality benefits disappear. Instead, you get results like these:
| Randomized trial/population | PDE5 inhibitor | Main result | Mortality/safety signal |
|---|
| RELAX — HFpEF (n=216) | Sildenafil | No improvement in peak VO₂, 6MWD, clinical status, LV remodeling or pulmonary pressure | 3/113 deaths sildenafil vs 0/103 placebo; serious AEs 22% vs 16%. Not powered for mortality. (JAMA Network) |
| SilHF — HFrEF + pulmonary hypertension (n=69) | Sildenafil | No improvement in symptoms, QoL, pulmonary pressure or walking distance | 4/45 deaths sildenafil vs 0/24 placebo; SAEs 33% vs 21%. Mortality difference nonsignificant, P=.30. (Wiley Online Library) |
| PASSION — HFpEF + combined post/precapillary PH (n=125) | Tadalafil | No benefit on HF hospitalization/death composite | 9/62 deaths tadalafil vs 2/63 placebo, HR 5.10 (1.10–23.69). Trial stopped early for drug-supply reasons, so this is a concerning but imprecise safety signal. (PubMed) |
| SIOVAC — persistent PH after corrected valvular disease (n=200) | Sildenafil | Significantly worse clinical outcomes | Worsened composite score: 33 sildenafil vs 14 placebo; survival free from HF admission worse, HR 2.0. Harm was primarily increased HF events rather than a clear mortality effect. (PubMed Central (PMC)) |
| SIDAMI — post-MI diastolic dysfunction (n=70) | Sildenafil | Failed primary endpoint: no reduction in filling pressure; some favorable hemodynamic secondary measures | Too short/small to assess MI, stroke or mortality. (PubMed) |
| Diabetic cardiomyopathy (n=59) | Sildenafil | Improved MRI measures of LV strain/torsion/remodeling | Surrogate-endpoint study; not an outcomes trial. (PubMed) |
These trials weren't powered to find a significant effect on mortality, but the numbers seem to be going in the wrong direction. Certainly, this is not the pattern you would expect to see if PDE5 inhibition actually produced substantial cardiovascular and overall mortality benefits.
Also, when PDE5i users were compared to alprostadil users, the PDE5 mortality benefit shrank from the 30-33% from the observational studies to 12% (
PubMed). Even this study doesn't completely eliminate healthy user bias though: within the larger group of men seeking treatment for ED (healthy users), you have more healthy users (for whom PDE5i is effective) and less healthy users (men who have to resort to alprostadil because of more advanced atherosclerosis, worse endothelial function, etc).
It seems plausible that PDE5 inhibition would have some minor benefit on CVD outcomes, from at least the modest BP reduction if nothing else, but there's no good quality randomized evidence to support that currently, and the observational studies are hopelessly confounded.